GO/NOGO

SpaceX Launch Weather Forecast
Updated: 04:31 UTC
Falcon 9 Block 5 | USSF-385 GO
T-9h 29m
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Government/Top Secret
▶

A classified mission for the United States Space Force. It is possibly a batch of classified LEO satellites based on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite bus, based on locations of rocket stage drop zones being exact fits with previous Starlink Group 15 launches.

Low Earth Orbit
24-Hour Forecast
52% scrub risk
▶
NWS hourly forecast + yesterday's observations (5 of 8 features)
Temperature Range
9 °F
+risk
Prior Day Avg Wind
3.7 mph
-risk
Avg Wind Speed
10.0 mph
+risk
Max Dewpoint
61.0 °F
-risk
Wind at Launch Hour
10.0 mph
~
Thunderstorms
Not available in 24-hour forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 24-hour forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 24-hour forecast
7-Day Forecast
Unfavorable
▶
NWS 7-day forecast (3 of 8 model features available)
Avg Wind Speed
15.0 mph
+risk
Temperature Range
11 °F
+risk
Wind at Launch Hour
15.0 mph
-risk
Max Dewpoint
Not available in 7-day forecast
Prior Day Avg Wind
Not available in 7-day forecast
Thunderstorms
Not available in 7-day forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 7-day forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 7-day forecast
Starship | Starlink Group 31-1 (Starship Flight 14) TBC
T-2d 7h
Sep 28, 2026 · 12:15 UTC · Orbital Launch Pad 2
Mission Details
Communications
▶

14th test flight of the two-stage Starship launch vehicle. 3rd flight of Starship V3 and the first Starship flight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites known as Starlink Group 31-1) into stable Low Earth Orbit. The ship is expected to fly at an altitude approximately 275 km above Earth and complete approximately 6 orbits around the planet for nearly 10 hours, with splashdown targeted in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The booster’s primary test objective on Flight 14 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf. Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Tbps of capacity to the constellation.

Low Earth Orbit
Launch site not supported (Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg only)
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Crew-13 GO
T-5d 10h
Oct 01, 2026 · 15:10 UTC · Space Launch Complex 40
Mission Details
Human Exploration
▶

SpaceX Crew-13 is the thirteenth crewed operational flight of a Crew Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station as part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program.

Low Earth Orbit
7-Day Forecast
Unfavorable
▶
NWS 7-day forecast (3 of 8 model features available)
Temperature Range
8 °F
+risk
Avg Wind Speed
7.5 mph
-risk
Wind at Launch Hour
7.5 mph
+risk
Max Dewpoint
Not available in 7-day forecast
Prior Day Avg Wind
Not available in 7-day forecast
Thunderstorms
Not available in 7-day forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 7-day forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 7-day forecast
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 15-27 Launched
Sep 20, 2026 · 01:47 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Communications
▶

A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.

Low Earth Orbit

What is this?

GoNoGo predicts the likelihood of a weather-related scrub for upcoming SpaceX launches. It does not predict technical holds, range conflicts, or vehicle issues — only weather.

The Model

Logistic Regression trained on 1,005 SpaceX launch attempts (2010-2026) with time-series cross-validation. The model uses 8 weather features extracted from historical NOAA and METAR data. Test set ROC-AUC: 0.624 on 333 held-out 2024+ launches. Top-decile lift: 2.1x (the highest-risk 10% of launches scrub at 2.1x the base rate).

Features

  • Temperature range (daily high-low spread)
  • Average wind speed
  • Wind speed at launch hour
  • Maximum dewpoint (humidity/moisture indicator)
  • Prior day average wind
  • Active precipitation (rain, drizzle, snow)
  • Thunderstorm activity
  • Sky obscuration (broken/overcast cloud cover)

Forecast Horizons

7-Day Forecast: Uses NWS extended forecast — only 3 of 8 features available. Qualitative rating (Favorable / Marginal / Unfavorable) rather than a percentage.

24-Hour Forecast: Uses NWS hourly forecast + yesterday's observations — 5 of 8 features. Shows scrub risk percentage.

2-Hour Nowcast: Uses NWS live observations + METAR conditions — all 8 features. Most accurate prediction window.

Limitations

Only ~26% of historical scrubs are weather-related. The model cannot predict technical issues, which account for the majority of delays. Predictions should be treated as one signal among many, not a definitive forecast.

Data Sources

NWS Weather API (forecasts and observations) · Launch Library 2 (upcoming launches) · Iowa Environmental Mesonet (historical METAR) · NOAA (historical weather)