A batch of 29 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.
A batch of 25 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.
This is the 24th flight of the Orbital ATK's uncrewed resupply spacecraft Cygnus and its 23rd flight to the International Space Station under the Commercial Resupply Services contract with NASA.
A batch of 29 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.
GoNoGo predicts the likelihood of a weather-related scrub for upcoming SpaceX launches. It does not predict technical holds, range conflicts, or vehicle issues — only weather.
Logistic Regression trained on 1,005 SpaceX launch attempts (2010-2026) with time-series cross-validation. The model uses 8 weather features extracted from historical NOAA and METAR data. Test set ROC-AUC: 0.624 on 333 held-out 2024+ launches. Top-decile lift: 2.1x (the highest-risk 10% of launches scrub at 2.1x the base rate).
7-Day Forecast: Uses NWS extended forecast — only 3 of 8 features available. Qualitative rating (Favorable / Marginal / Unfavorable) rather than a percentage.
24-Hour Forecast: Uses NWS hourly forecast + yesterday's observations — 5 of 8 features. Shows scrub risk percentage.
2-Hour Nowcast: Uses NWS live observations + METAR conditions — all 8 features. Most accurate prediction window.
Only ~26% of historical scrubs are weather-related. The model cannot predict technical issues, which account for the majority of delays. Predictions should be treated as one signal among many, not a definitive forecast.
NWS Weather API (forecasts and observations) · Launch Library 2 (upcoming launches) · Iowa Environmental Mesonet (historical METAR) · NOAA (historical weather)