GO/NOGO

SpaceX Launch Weather Forecast
Updated: 00:51 UTC
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 17-41 Success
T-Launched
May 30, 2026 · 15:25 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Communications
▶

A batch of 24 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.

Low Earth Orbit
2-Hour Nowcast
73% scrub risk
▶
NWS live observations + METAR conditions (all 8 features)
Avg Wind Speed
23.0 mph
+risk
Temperature Range
4 °F
+risk
Wind at Launch Hour
23.0 mph
-risk
Max Dewpoint
54.3 °F
-risk
Prior Day Avg Wind
6.8 mph
-risk
Precipitation
No
-risk
Sky Obscured
No
-risk
Thunderstorms
No
~
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 10-43 GO
T-3d 7h
Jun 03, 2026 · 08:02 UTC · Space Launch Complex 40
Mission Details
Communications
▶

A batch of 29 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.

Low Earth Orbit
7-Day Forecast
Unfavorable
▶
NWS 7-day forecast (3 of 8 model features available)
Avg Wind Speed
12.5 mph
+risk
Temperature Range
9 °F
+risk
Wind at Launch Hour
12.5 mph
-risk
Max Dewpoint
Not available in 7-day forecast
Prior Day Avg Wind
Not available in 7-day forecast
Thunderstorms
Not available in 7-day forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 7-day forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 7-day forecast
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 17-47 GO
T-3d 13h
Jun 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Communications
▶

A batch of 24 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.

Low Earth Orbit
7-Day Forecast
Unfavorable
▶
NWS 7-day forecast (3 of 8 model features available)
Avg Wind Speed
15.0 mph
+risk
Temperature Range
10 °F
+risk
Wind at Launch Hour
15.0 mph
-risk
Max Dewpoint
Not available in 7-day forecast
Prior Day Avg Wind
Not available in 7-day forecast
Thunderstorms
Not available in 7-day forecast
Precipitation
Not available in 7-day forecast
Sky Obscured
Not available in 7-day forecast
Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 17-41 Launched
May 30, 2026 · 15:25 UTC · Space Launch Complex 4E
Mission Details
Communications
▶

A batch of 24 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system.

Low Earth Orbit

What is this?

GoNoGo predicts the likelihood of a weather-related scrub for upcoming SpaceX launches. It does not predict technical holds, range conflicts, or vehicle issues — only weather.

The Model

Logistic Regression trained on 1,005 SpaceX launch attempts (2010-2026) with time-series cross-validation. The model uses 8 weather features extracted from historical NOAA and METAR data. Test set ROC-AUC: 0.624 on 333 held-out 2024+ launches. Top-decile lift: 2.1x (the highest-risk 10% of launches scrub at 2.1x the base rate).

Features

  • Temperature range (daily high-low spread)
  • Average wind speed
  • Wind speed at launch hour
  • Maximum dewpoint (humidity/moisture indicator)
  • Prior day average wind
  • Active precipitation (rain, drizzle, snow)
  • Thunderstorm activity
  • Sky obscuration (broken/overcast cloud cover)

Forecast Horizons

7-Day Forecast: Uses NWS extended forecast — only 3 of 8 features available. Qualitative rating (Favorable / Marginal / Unfavorable) rather than a percentage.

24-Hour Forecast: Uses NWS hourly forecast + yesterday's observations — 5 of 8 features. Shows scrub risk percentage.

2-Hour Nowcast: Uses NWS live observations + METAR conditions — all 8 features. Most accurate prediction window.

Limitations

Only ~26% of historical scrubs are weather-related. The model cannot predict technical issues, which account for the majority of delays. Predictions should be treated as one signal among many, not a definitive forecast.

Data Sources

NWS Weather API (forecasts and observations) · Launch Library 2 (upcoming launches) · Iowa Environmental Mesonet (historical METAR) · NOAA (historical weather)